Arch Manning is officially taking the reins as the starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns this year. And the hype is predictably off the charts. He’s a Manning after all, expectations are sky high. NFL Draft expert Todd McShay already raves about him a lot and praises his size, mobility, fast release, and accuracy.  And he’s amazed at how Arch plays and gets around defenders. And the Heisman discussion? Oh, it’s already begun. Although Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has surged in the most recent odds, Arch remains one of the most hyped QBs in the nation. He possesses the ability, the legacy, and now, the national attention. But as ESPN put it, he’ll face a test right away when Texas takes on Ohio State in Week 1, so we’ll see if he lives up to the hype or if things get bumpy.

Despite all the excitement surrounding him, big questions loom in the quarterback locker room. Arch has played in just nine games with two starts to this point, and this will be his first full season commanding the Longhorns. He flashed—last season, he completed 61 of 90 passes for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and only two picks. But now he has to show he can withstand the the SEC defenses, and, of course, the pressure of being the lead in Austin. In addition to this, the NFL buzz is already building up even though he hasn’t had a full season as a starter yet. Some insiders are asking if Arch might ‘pull an Eli’—essentially leverage his family’s influence to dictate where his NFL destination is if he goes early in the draft.

Speaking about McShay, he had a very strong opinion about Manning’s 2026 draft in the Todd McShay show. “I think Arch Mann is going back to Texas if he’s going to be if he’s the guy that, if he could be the first overall pick, he’s going back to Texas,” says Steve Muench. If you haven’t seen the episode yet, here’s the scoop. To be honest, it’s a pretty raw, no-holds-barred evaluation from two guys who know their stuff. Muench and Todd McShay scoured every snap of Arch’s 2024 tape. First of all, Muench completely understands the hype—Arch is a Manning, he’s at Texas, and he’s under the microscope. Muench notes Arch’s rawness with limited college pass attempts. That’s not a ton to go off, and Muench hints that if Arch wasn’t a Manning, people might not be talking about him as a future No. 1 pick just yet.

Its not news that a good coach can elevate a budding QB. The NFL history is full of examples. Consider Patrick Mahomes. He fell into the lap of Andy Reid, one of the finest offensive minds in the game, and the Chiefs based their system on his strengths. Muench puts it plainly, “If you find a situation where you’ve got a play caller, you’ve got an organization, you’ve got decision makers that you like and think are a good landing spot for him, I think the game changes a little bit.” On the flip side, you’ve got guys like Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen, who were thrown into messy situations with unstable coaching staffs and shaky rosters. Their careers never really took off, even though they had plenty of talent coming out of college.

For Arch Manning, this is huge. If a team with a creative play caller, a solid front office, and an idea to develop him picks him his chances of succeeding become much better. Just think about Detroit with Ben Johnson or Houston with Bobby Slowik. But if he lands in a place with constant changes in coaches, no true offensive identity. The hurdles might hinder his development, regardless of how skilled he is.

Matthew Stafford’s Heir?

One destination keeps popping up in the draft circles, the Los Angeles Rams. Ex-scouts and insiders believe that Arch Manning could be the guy to eventually supplant Matthew Stafford, the $44 million man. “If you go into that draft knowing that the Rams may be able to trade up to that first overall pick,” says Muench. Matthew Stafford has long been holding it down for the Rams and cashing those massive checks, but he may have just lined up his successor as the star quarterback of the Texas Longhorns.

The Rams just signed Stafford to a new contract for $44 million for the 2025 season, of which $40 million is guaranteed. That’s an enormous payday, especially considering he has already accumulated more than $364 million in career earnings. The deal sets a $17 million increase for 2025, increasing his cash payment from $27 million to $44 million. The veteran QB has another $40 million waiting in the wings if he remains on the team at the beginning of free agency in 2026.

Stafford’s deal is massive, and sure, he can serve the Rams, but the team is looking for a future prospect. The Rams are already looking ahead to the 2026 draft and hoping to get a top quarterback, and if Arch continues progressing, he might end up at the top of their wish list. There’s a lot of chatter that the Rams have been stockpiling draft picks, possibly to make a move for a franchise QB when Stafford’s time is up. And Arch is being pegged as the early favorite to go No. 1 overall in 2026.

Analysts are fairly blunt about it, Arch has the tools—size, arm, bloodline, and that Manning cool factor in crunch time. Yeah, he’s still raw and requires more college reps, but if he continues to grow, he might be the ideal fit for the Rams. A team that requires a seamless transition when Stafford departs. And let’s be honest, landing with a stable organization, creative play caller, and a front office with a plan (like we talked about before) could set Arch up for NFL success in a way that’s tailor-made for his skillset.