The Texas Longhorns entered this season riding high as the No. 1-ranked team in the country. Unfortunately, their early loss to then-No. 2-ranked Ohio State (now the nation’s top-ranked team) threw a wrench in those playoff hopes. It also derailed Arch Manning‘s preseason Heisman hype and hopes. Now, sitting at 7-2, Texas is still in the hunt – all thanks to the 12-team playoff format introduced last season.

With room for three teams each from the Big Ten and SEC, two-loss teams like Texas and Vanderbilt are still in the conversation, even with one more defeat. On November 2, college football analysts SEC Mike and Cousin Shane hopped onto their That SEC Podcast and broke down the Longhorns’ playoff chances.

SEC Mike opened his argument/case: “I remember we talked about this all last week. They’re still alive for the playoff, that’s obvious, but I didn’t realize they’re still very much alive for the SEC championship. But could they make it? Shane, could they make it at nine and three?” The key question they wrestled with was simple: could Texas make the College Football Playoff at 9–3? On paper, that sounds like a long shot, but when you look deeper, there’s a case.

SEC Mike doubled down on his case: “And before you say no, keep in mind, if they go 9–3, that means they have to beat either Georgia or A&M. And A&M hasn’t lost a game yet.” Credit where it’s due, the Longhorns bounced back strong after the Ohio State and Florida setbacks. They’ve taken down two top-10 teams in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, proving they can still hang with the nation’s best.

Now, the real test begins. Texas has three games left on the schedule: No. 5 Georgia, unranked Arkansas, and No. 3 Texas A&M. It’s a brutal stretch, but one that could completely reshape the playoff picture if the Longhorns handle their business. Here’s the current SEC playoff picture: The SEC is filled with killers stacked.

Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss are all sitting with one loss, while Texas A&M is flexing its undefeated status. If the season ended today, A&M, Alabama, and either Georgia or Ole Miss would likely claim the SEC’s three playoff slots. That makes it challenging for Texas to jump the line unless something big happens down the stretch.

If Texas can beat Arkansas and pull off a win against either Georgia or Texas A&M, the playoff committee will have to take notice. A victory over Georgia would be especially huge, given the Bulldogs’ current top-10 ranking. Three top-10 wins would be hard for the committee to ignore, especially when one of the Longhorns’ losses came in a tight game against undefeated No. 1 Ohio State. For that to happen, Ole Miss needs to stumble a game or two (which is very unlikely). Suddenly, the Longhorns’ résumé looks a lot more impressive.

His co-host, Cousin Shane, agreed, saying this is precisely the type of debate college football will face more often under the 12-team playoff. “We’re going to have more losses in this conference,” he said. “And the severity of punishment for that loss shouldn’t mean you’re knocked out of the playoffs.” In other words, the SEC’s week-to-week grind makes perfection almost impossible, but a team like Texas (even others), with multiple quality wins, still deserves a look.

Cousin Shane summed it up perfectly: “If you’ve got three top-10 wins, then why wouldn’t you be part of that twelve that’s going to get in? Because clearly, you beat three of them already.” Look, it’s not guaranteed, but it’s a fair point. In a year where the SEC is packed with playoff-caliber teams, Texas might just find its way back into the national picture, even with three losses. If Texas gets the blessings of the football gods and the playoff committee, Arch Manning can have his redemption tour mid-season.

Arch Manning redemption tour?

Both ups and downs have marked Arch Manning’s 2025 season. The former 5-star started the year as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, but fumbled early against teams like Oklahoma State and UTEP. However, things began to turn around when he played Sam Houston, where he threw three touchdowns and completed nearly 86% of his passes, his best game of the season. Then again, dipped against the Gators and Kentucky. Just when it seemed like he was finding his rhythm, he suffered a concussion against Mississippi State and had to sit out for a bit.

But on Saturday, Manning made a big comeback. Playing in front of the home crowd in Austin, he led Texas to a 34–31 win over No. 9 Vanderbilt, throwing for 328 yards and three touchdowns with a 75% completion rate. Even Arch Manning himself joked about it: “Maybe the concussion helped,” he said in the post-game.

After the game, analyst Sean McDonough brought the Heisman hype back: “Arch Manning was the preseason [Heisman] favorite … he’s fallen completely off the board. He’s on target again and might be reigniting candidacy with this performance!” Even analyst Greg McElroy praised Manning’s resilience, saying it “says a lot” that he could take all that pressure and still bounce back strong. He added, “Steve Sarkisian’s got Arch Manning playing like his uncles after all.”

Before throwing hands, mind you, despite having four eerily close games, Arch Manning somehow has 18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 2,123 yards. Still, in reality, Arch Manning is nowhere close to the top 3; those spots belong to Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, and Julian Sayin.

However, suppose Arch Manning puts up 300+ yards and around three touchdowns against Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas A&M like he did in his last two games. In that case, he might find himself back in the Heisman conversation and most likely put the Longhorns back into the playoff talk.