Nobody had a better bounce-back than Arch Manning in the second half of the season, especially considering all the preseason hype and promises. The former 5-star turned his naysayers into spectators. College football insider Kirk Herbstreit believes Arch Manning has one more year of college ball left, which has already created a seven-figure domino effect on his NIL value.

“I thought if there was one thing that stood out to me, it was not just Texas’s defense, but Arch Manning himself did a hell of a job this year,” said Kirk Herbstreit on his podcast episode. “I think he’ll benefit in the long run from this and think he’ll be back for college football next year.”

Right after Herbstreit spoke on Arch’s future, his NIL stock shot up by $1.3 million, rising from $4 million to $5.3 million. Significantly, Arch Manning entered the 2025 season with massive hype as Texas’ new starting quarterback, but that excitement didn’t last long.

After a rough opener against Ohio State, where he threw for only 170 yards at 56.7% accuracy, fans started having second thoughts.

From there, his efficiency dropped to around 44% against a weaker UTEP team, and the struggles continued when Texas traveled to Florida.

As the season progressed, Arch started heating up and looked comfortable in the pocket. He demonstrated significant growth, achieving a sharp 77.8% completion rate against Oklahoma. Following that game, the yards continued to accumulate as he threw for 328 yards against Vanderbilt. He added a season-high 389 against Arkansas.

It became clear that the talent was there. He just needed time to put it all together.

However, most people found it difficult to envision him as a top quarterback in the NFL draft in the initial days. His completion rate sits at 61.4%, and there are still some underthrows and overthrows that remind people he’s not a finished product yet. His 2,942 passing yards show promise, but also show that there’s plenty of room to grow if he wants to be considered a top NFL prospect right now.

He also had an impressive game against Arkansas, where he threw four touchdowns and became the first Texas player to catch a touchdown, throw one, and rush for one in the same game. He’s even tied for the fifth-most touchdown passes (24) in the SEC.

Many still believe Arch isn’t quite ready to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. And if Kirk Herbstreit is right about him returning to Texas, it could be the best move for him. Not only could he clear more than his original $6.8 million in NIL money, but he’d also have a real shot at winning a national championship.

Deep diving into history books, there’s another Manning who followed a similar suit. Peyton Manning stayed for his four seasons at Tennessee and finished as a Heisman runner-up in his senior year. Moreover, he became the No. 1 overall NFL draft pick and honed his game. Arch Manning could take a lesson from his playbook.

Plus, another year under Steve Sarkisian might be precisely what he needs to boost himself into the No. 1 overall pick conversation for 2027. Texas has some work to do this offseason if it plans to stick with Arch Manning.

Texas problems to solve this offseason

If Arch Manning is going to lead the Texas Longhorns offense to success in the 2026 season, they really need to focus on two main things. First, the interior offensive line needs a serious upgrade. They need bigger, stronger guys at center and guard. They need players who can keep Manning clean in the pocket.

In addition, they need linemen who can open up running lanes. Right now, he’s getting pressured too quickly.

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Second, the run game has to be more consistent. Having a reliable running back, or a couple of good ones, is critical for the offense. The Longhorns ranked near the bottom nationally. They were also last in the SEC for average yards per rush. They struggled to run the ball for most of the year because of injuries and issues with the offensive line.

However, they did show signs of life in the final regular-season game against Texas A&M, racking up 218 rushing yards.

The team also needs to improve its scoring efficiency near the end zone and avoid settling for field goals. Overall, improving the guys up front and building a solid run game will make everything else on offense click for Arch.