Nobody had a better bounce-back than Arch Manning in the second half of the season, especially considering all the preseason hype and promises. The former 5-star turned his naysayers into spectators. College football insider Kirk Herbstreit believes Arch Manning has one more year of college ball left, which has already created an 8-figure domino effect on his NIL value.

“I thought if there was one thing that stood out to me, it was not just Texas’s defense, but Arch Manning himself did a hell of a job this year.” Said Kirk Herbstreit on his podcast episode. “And I think he really grew. I think he’ll benefit in the long run from this. I think he’ll be back for college football next year.”

Right after Herbstreit spoke on Arch’s future, his NIL stock shot up by $1.3 million, rising from $4 million to $5.3 million. And honestly, it does makes sense when you look at it from a broad picture. Arch Manning entered the 2025 season with massive hype as Texas’s new starting quarterback, but that excitement didn’t last long. After a rough opener against Ohio State, where he threw for only 170 yards at 56.7% accuracy, fans started having second thoughts about his accuracy.

Things didn’t get much better right away, either. His efficiency dropped to around 44% against a weaker UTEP team, and the struggles continued when Texas traveled to Florida.

But as the season went on, Arch started to feel comfortable in the pocket. His mid-season turnaround was hard to ignore. He showed real growth with a sharp 77.8% completion rate against Oklahoma. Then he followed that up with big games. He threw for 328 yards against Vanderbilt. He added a season-high 389 against Arkansas. It became clear that the talent was there. He just needed time to put everything together.

Even with those impressive performances, the early bumps slightly weigh down his overall season. His completion rate sits at 61.4%, and there are still some underthrows and overthrows that remind people he’s not a finished product yet. His 2,942 passing yards show promise, but also shows that there’s plenty of room to grow if he wants to be considered a top NFL prospect right now.

He also had an impressive game against Arkansas, where he threw four touchdowns and became the first Texas player to catch a touchdown, throw one, and rush for one in the same game. He’s even tied for the fifth-most touchdown passes (24) in the SEC.

That’s why many believe Arch isn’t quite ready to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. And if Kirk Herbstreit is right about him returning to Texas, it could be the best move for him. Not only could he clear more than his original $6.8 million in NIL money, but he’d also have a real shot at winning a national championship.

Plus, another year under Steve Sarkisian might be exactly what he needs to boost himself into the No. 1 overall pick conversation for 2027. Texas has some work to do this offseason if planning to stick with Arch Manning.

Texas problems to solve this off-season

If Arch Manning is going to lead the Texas Longhorns offense to success in the 2026 season, they really need to focus on two main things. First, the interior offensive line needs a serious upgrade. They need bigger, stronger guys at center and guard. They need players who can keep Manning clean in the pocket. And they need linemen who can open up running lanes. Right now, he’s getting pressured too quickly.

Second, the run game has to be more consistent. Having a reliable running back, or a couple of good ones, is huge. The Longhorns ranked near the bottom nationally. They were also last in the SEC for average yards per rush. They struggled to run the ball for most of the year due to injuries and issues with the offensive line. However, they did show signs of life in the final regular-season game against Texas A&M. They racked up a season-high 218 rushing yards.

The team also needs to get better at scoring touchdowns when they get close to the end zone. Not just settling for field goals. Overall, improving the guys up front and building a solid run game will make everything else on offense click for Arch.