Say what you will about Auburn’s recent history—the 2020s haven’t exactly been a victory lap. Hugh Freeze is still standing, still swinging, and still insisting the Tigers can turn the corner in Year 3. Yes, the seat is warm. Maybe scalding. But Freeze now has his guy under center in Jackson Arnold, and the transfer QB1 might just be the spark to flip the script on what’s been a frustrating stretch. Somehow, bright days for the program are ahead in 2025, says ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg.

Similar thoughts of the Cover 3 crew broke it down. “What if Jackson Arnold, some transfer portal additions, and one of the best wide receiver rooms that Hugh Freeze says he’s ever coached… what if you go out there and start to stack a little bit early, you start to gain a little bit of confidence?”

That’s the big if. Auburn’s path to redemption hinges on Arnold settling into this offense and lifting a program that hasn’t posted a winning SEC record since 2017. “There is so much pressure on Auburn to take a step forward that Hugh Freeze had the confidence at a golf tournament to say the expectations are to make a bowl game,” the analyst continued. That quote landed like a challenge to the roster—and maybe to himself.

There’s something about this schedule that raises eyebrows. “I don’t hate it with that schedule. That is one of the more friendly schedules, I think, in the SEC,” one insider said. And he’s not wrong. Auburn gets Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt—all beatable. Oklahoma and Texas A&M? Winnable if Freeze’s system and Arnold’s arm click. The big boys, Georgia and Alabama, will be monsters, sure. But what if Auburn hits 6-2 with losses only to UGA and Bama?

“If the two are Georgia and Bama, and the six are Oklahoma, A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vandy? Then A&M’s really the only tiebreaker you’ve got to worry about.” Add in the Iron Bowl being at Jordan-Hare, and the math gets even more intriguing. That’s where the “dark horse” whispers start growing legs. “Auburn’s been a dark horse before,” another analyst chimed in. “Auburn has been claimed to be a dark horse more than they have been a dark horse,” he added dryly. Still, there’s something to be said for a team with low external expectations and a high internal ceiling.

As the same voice put it, “If you’re going to buy into Auburn, you’re buying into Jackson Arnold, wide receivers, the offense being much, much better. And just simply having a level-up at the quarterback position is going to give you a chance for more success.” Outside the buzz and talk show banter, Rittenberg added some serious validation to Auburn’s upside. In his FPI rankings projecting performance through 2026, Rittenberg slotted AU at No. 37.

Surprisingly ahead of FSU, North Carolina, and UCLA. That’s not an empty nod. It’s based on Freeze’s two Top 10 recruiting classes, a top-tier WR group, and a passer pipeline that finally feels stable again. With a reasonable strength of schedule and some momentum from the portal, Auburn is rearming.

With Arnold steering the offense, a soft first-half schedule, and a few key matchups falling in their favor. Who knows, the Tigers might just make noise in the SEC again.

Why Hugh Freeze’s future might not be so bleak after all

When ESPN’s Rittenberg sat down to evaluate Auburn, he didn’t just look at last season’s heartbreaks or Hugh Freeze’s increasingly toasty seat. He took the long view, weighing QB continuity, line-of-scrimmage dominance, roster management, and top-end talent. And surprisingly? The Tigers stacked up pretty well.

For starters, Auburn is swapping out two-year starter Payton Thorne with Jackson Arnold. That alone lifts the Tigers’ projection through 2026. And in case Arnold doesn’t work out, there’s comfort in depth. Auburn’s room features Deuce Knight and Ashton Daniels, both capable of stepping in and taking the reins. Freeze isn’t flying blind at QB anymore.

Rittenberg also gave the Tigers credit for their beef up front. Both offensive and defensive lines are showing signs of stability, and that’s no small thing in a league built on trench warfare. More importantly, he sees Auburn’s recent portal moves as a net win. That’s a huge deal when most teams are bleeding talent every December.

Hugh Freeze, of course, knows the clock is ticking. He’s under a “microscope,” as Rittenberg put it. Surely, not all hope is lost.