Brent Venables is feeling the heat in Norman as the pressure mounts to prove Oklahoma’s SEC move wasn’t a mistake. After three seasons and a 22-17 overall record, the Sooners’ 2-6 SEC showing last year has fans and boosters restless. When close games slip away and the quarterback’s play wavers, there’s no room for rebuilding talk anymore. At a blueblood program like OU, it’s win big or bust, and 2025 might be Venables’ last chance to deliver. And with all this talk, the rumor mill is up and running to welcome back one of Oklahoma’s most successful coaches.

You might have guessed it already. We’re talking about Lincoln Riley coming back to Norman. Riley famously swapped crimson for cardinal and gold, launching his USC project while Sooner fans were still processing the breakup. But college football never stays predictable, especially when Oklahoma has endured more soul-searching than playoff wins since his departure. The coaching hot seat? It’s burning through denim in Norman, especially as the new SEC reality starts to bite. Now, with rumors about Brent Venables’ future swirling (Finebaum said it) and savvy new management at OU, it’s only natural to wonder if the stars, however unlikely, could align for Riley’s wild homecoming tour.

Here’s where things take a turn. On The Solid Verbal podcast, Josh Pate laid out the road map with casual precision, riffing on a fan’s spicy hot take. He said, “Here’s what would have to happen. USC has a great year, yes. But the dynamic behind the scenes, we start to hear is that the general manager is not answering to the head coach. He’s answering to the AD. And Lincoln Riley, even in a great year, has been rubbed the wrong way by that. And they come to an end pass. And they won’t rework the language and the agreement. And then he wants out.” Just so we are clear, this is not happening right now. The scenario hinges on whether this happens. As of now, Chad Bowden and Riley share a great relationship, so it’s implausible. Bowden has been on camera, singing Riley’s praises and calling him “the best quarterback evaluator” and “the best human being”, so expecting a rift between them would be like expecting Nick Saban to come back. 

But in Pate’s scenario, things get even spicier in Norman: “And Brent Venables has been a smoldering tire fire all year… There’s a new athletic director coming in at OU. You’ve got a new general manager there. Maybe we find out Jim Nagy’s preference is Lincoln Riley. The new AD’s preference is Lincoln Riley. I still don’t know how you wipe the memory clean of your entire constituency there. But that’s the only way that this could possibly happen.” This is the only marginally true part of the argument, that is, Venables being on a hot seat. As Finebaum says, if he fails to win every game before they face the Longhorns, it’s difficult for him to continue. 

Pate notes that even with a great year at USC, ongoing power struggles between the coach, the athletic director, and the general manager could push Riley to consider an exit. Meanwhile, if Brent Venables stumbles again in 2025 and the new leadership at Oklahoma wants to make a splash, the door, just barely, creaks open for the prodigal son’s return.

But let’s think for a second, would Sooner Nation ever forgive and forget? As Pate himself mused, “I still don’t know how you wipe the memory clean of your entire constituency there. But that’s the only way that this could possibly happen.” For all the what-ifs and internet speculation, it’s a scenario needing more than just new support staff and a brand-new coaching search. It would require a mass amnesia, no message board’s likely to allow. Still, college football is the land where impossible stories come alive, and as long as both parties keep stirring headlines, you can bet the next plot twist isn’t far away (it’s not happening, chill out.)

Finebaum strikes again

Paul Finebaum’s latest salvos at Lincoln Riley have added more fuel to the debate swirling around USC’s embattled coach. Picking up where past critiques left off, Finebaum delivered a withering assessment on The Paul Finebaum Show, remarking, “I’m beginning to think what we saw at Oklahoma had more to do with what Bob Stoops left behind than what Lincoln Riley was able to do… I don’t think he can handle the pressure of being a coach. … I would have fired him last year if I didn’t have to eat an $80 million buyout. To me, the trajectory has ended.” With Riley’s buyout now ballooning to $90 million, the priciest in college football, Finebaum insists it’s the only thing keeping Riley in the job, highlighting just how steep the climb back to prominence has become for the Trojans.

The ESPN analyst hasn’t let up in questioning Riley’s legacy, hammering home the idea that USC’s lack of a conference title, even after landing the nation’s top 2026 recruiting class, undercuts the coach’s supposed pedigree. He points out that after Riley’s electric start in L.A., which featured an instant turnaround and a Heisman for Caleb Williams, the program’s momentum has sputtered: an 11-3 debut gave way to an 8-5 follow-up and a 7-6 finish last fall, fueling doubts about USC’s direction and Riley’s ability to finish the job he started. According to Finebaum, “He didn’t just leave Oklahoma, he fled,” arguing that Riley’s move was more about dodging the SEC gauntlet than embracing the storied USC rebuild.

In this climate, the odds of Riley ever returning to Oklahoma feel fantastical. Finebaum’s belief that “the trajectory has ended” at USC, paired with the financial gravity of Riley’s $90 million buyout, underlines how firmly the door appears closed. With Brent Venables reshaping Oklahoma in his own image and Sooner fans still carrying the sting of Riley’s exit, any path back for Riley would require rewriting more than just recent history; it would demand a level of collegiate forgiveness (and institutional upheaval) that seems inconceivable in today’s high-stakes college football world.