College football may be about to undergo a drastic transformation. Particularly in the playoff aspect. Something that’s going to become a nightmare for Kenny Dillingham in Tempe. Last season was a dream; in their first year in the Big 12, Arizona State grabbed the conference title. Not only that, they played in their first-ever 12-team CFP and finished No. 7 in the final AP poll. Sadly, this season could carry a very different vibe. Just when you thought Kenny Dillingham could put his feet up and ride 2025 with some swag, the CFP committee served him a cold plate of reality. And let’s just say things aren’t looking so bright for the Sun Devils.  

So Ian McCluskey had an interesting question for Chip Patterson and Tom Fornelli in their Cover 3 Podcast episode on May 8. The question is—“Which of the CFP teams from last year (not including IU) do you think could have the biggest regression for this upcoming season?” Fornelli didn’t miss a beat. “Arizona State,” he said. Brief silence. “Win count or quality?” Patterson asked. “Win count,” he replied. “They could finish 7-5. It’s the Big 12.” A slight smirk from his co-host prompted him to continue….

“There are 11 teams currently in the Big 12,” he said. “If you look at conference title futures that are 10-1 or higher, if I just place money on all 10 of those or all 11 of them at 10-1 or higher, what are the odds I make money?” Parity is everywhere. Utah, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas, even Colorado—any of them could sneak up and wreck a contender’s season. 

ASU’s schedule isn’t an optimistic one either. Their last eight games will test them—TCU, Utah, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, West Virginia, Colorado, and Arizona. That’s a stretch where 3-5 is more likely than 6-2 unless QB Sam Leavitt morphs into a full-on Heisman candidate. Let’s not forget that RB Cam Skattebo is gone too. Replacing that kind of ground talent isn’t a walk in the park. And if Kenny Dillingham doesn’t find a suitable replacement, defenses are going to maul his QB on the ground. 

There’s optimism of course. Some reports put both the Sun Devils and Iowa State, last year’s Big 12 title contenders, as the top favorites. Makes sense right? The core of the 2024 roster is still intact for Kenny Dillingham’s team. Sam Leavitt, who tossed for 2,885 yards and 24 TDs, got the arm, and the defense has speed. But nine wins might be the ceiling. Early projections already have them losing to Baylor, Utah, and Iowa State. But here’s where things get messier. 

Kenny Dillingham’s conference takes a blow in CFP announcement 

When it comes to college football, the Big 12 and the ACC can’t rival the SEC and the Big Ten. Remember that talk last year about the CFP expansion to a 16-team format? Word is the SEC and B1G threatened to form their own postseason system unless they got the lion’s share of revenue and say over the format. Well, they might be about to get it for real. The memorandum of understanding locks in the two powerhouse conferences as shot callers starting in 2026, when the new TV deal kicks off. 

And here’s what the 16-team playoff format looks like—

• Four auto-bids each for the SEC and the Big Ten
• Two each for the ACC and the Big 12
• One for the best G5 team 
• Three at large bids (one basically reserved for Notre Dame if it finishes inside rank 14)

Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger updated that “there is growing B1G-SEC support for a 16-team bracket… with season-ending inner-league play-in games (3rd place v 6th; 4th vs 5th).” That’s a blow for Kenny Dillingham and co. Even if Arizona State is solid, they’ll have to claw for scraps behind the SEC and the Big Ten.