For Arch Manning and a rival SEC QB, the biggest decision of their careers looms long before the NFL draft. Will they stick around for one last dance in 2026 or rest their destiny in the hands of NFL GMs just after their first season as a starter? ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit has a strong opinion on the matter.

“I thought if there was one thing that stood out to me, it was not just Texas’s defense, but Arch Manning himself did a hell of a job this year. And I think he really grew. I think he’ll benefit in the long run from this. I think he’ll be back for college football next year,” said Kirk Herbstreit on his December 1st podcast episode. The ESPN GameDay host then talked about why Alabama QB Ty Simpson could also wait out another year to enter the NFL draft.

“I think Ty Simpson will be back, by the way, in college football. Everyone’s going to be telling them they’re the first picks overall. What are they doing? I think both look at this through a very different type of lens on how you should make a decision like that. I think they both need reps. They both need to grow,” said Kirk Herbstreit. But why do both QBs need more snaps?

Arch Manning had unprecedented hype in his first year as a starter in 2025. But right after finishing the Ohio State game in Week 1, the hype took a big hit. The New Orleans native struggled and managed to pass for just 170 yards at 56.7% efficiency. Moreover, in later games against a weaker UTEP, young Arch’s efficiency hovered around 44% and when Texas went to Florida, the woes continued. But later in the season, Arch Manning undoubtedly showed big improvement.

Manning’s mid-season resurgence was undeniable, as he showcased his potential with a 77.8% efficiency against Oklahoma and followed it up with spectacular performances, throwing for 328 yards against Vanderbilt and a season-best 389 against Arkansas. However, these flashes of brilliance couldn’t erase the early-season struggles.

As such, the season hasn’t given enough fuel to propel Arch Manning in the first round of the 2026 NFL draft. His efficiency is still a meagre 61.4%, passes are still under- and overthrown, and his ceiling is well beyond the 2,942 yards he has passed this year. An extra season with Steve Sarkisian could be something that propels his draft fate to No. 1 overall in 2027. Notably, Ty Simpson also has a similar but a bit nuanced story this year.

Why does Ty Simpson need to wait out one more year to enter the NFL draft?

The latest rankings from ESPN project Alabama QB Ty Simpson as the 7th overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. That’s impressive considering he is the first QB pick projected in the 2026 NFL draft. Even QBs like Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore are behind him, and so one could argue Simpson should most definitely register for the 2026 NFL draft. Before that, let’s take a walk down memory lane.

Shedeur Sanders was one of the highest projected QBs in the 2025 NFL draft, and we all know what happened with him. Of course, Ty Simpson’s case is wholly different than Shedeur’s, but why take chances when you can secure your future by playing another year, right? Alabama has now officially entered the SEC championship game, and it’s unlikely that Simpson would put in those solid Vanderbilt and Missouri performances against Kirby Smart’s resolute defense.

Not to mention, Ty Simpson was limited to just 54.3% efficiency and 60% efficiency against Auburn and LSU. Simply put, his performances after the Missouri game haven’t been the same, where he passed at 74.3% efficiency. Another year in college football at Alabama would remove all such uncertainties and variables, making Ty Simpson’s draft prospect unimpeachable and maybe even a Heisman, to go along with it. The possibilities are exciting.