Essentials Inside The Story

• College football analyst downplays FSU's promises
• Digging deep into FSU's boardroom tactics
• Mike Norvell remains laser-focused

After the Florida State Seminoles’ 21-11 loss to the NC State Wolfpack, speculation about Mike Norvell’s job security reached a fever pitch. Even so, the Seminoles announced he’s coming back for Year 7. The board of trustees is preaching “changes are coming” to fix the program. But one college football analyst isn’t buying the sunshine; he thinks those promises are pure smoke.

On the November 24th episode of the Cover 3 podcast, Bud Elliot shared, “I think this is entirely fake and cosmetic. It is much cheaper to fire the GM or bring in a new GM, all of which is a long-term process, and won’t yield quick results. I don’t believe they are going to pump money into NIL at all.”

In six seasons, Norvell sits at 38-33 with just two winning campaigns. However, his résumé still seems somewhat lacking. Even with this year’s rough record, Florida State has made significant strides from its 2-10 disaster in 2024, the program’s worst since 1974.

Norvell’s crew flipped from one of the nation’s worst offenses (No. 132) to one of its best (No. 8), outgaining opponents in 10 games and showing real signs of life. This prompted the program to make a promise.

“Our responsibility is to do what gives Florida State the strongest competitive position, not just today, but for years to come, said Florida athletic director Michael Alford.

Florida State has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its football program over the past few years with high expectations. Chairman Collins, President McCullough, and I are aligned in partnering with Coach and improving our ability to compete for championships.”

That’s where Elliot spots red flags in Alford’s promise to Norvell.

At the June board meeting, Alford fully backed the House settlement and expressed excitement that Florida State will soon share up to $20.5 million in TV revenue with its athletes. But he didn’t sugarcoat the flip side.

The Florida State athletic director was concerned about whether other schools would adhere to the cap or quietly provide extra funding to players and recruits under the guise of “NIL deals.”

With all the name, image, likeness buzz swirling to justify keeping Norvell another year, Elliott isn’t fearing for FSU’s roster at all. He thinks it’s already polished and ready to load. And honestly, it’s hard to argue when the Seminoles opened the season by smacking Alabama 31-17 right out of the gate.

The analysts refer to this promise as a “one-year band-aid.”

Alford made it clear back in October that Norvell’s entire operation would be under the microscope once the regular season ended. Regardless, if the Seminoles chose to sever ties, the price tag would be substantial. The buyout hovers around $59 million, roughly 85% of his contract that stretches through 2031.

In other words, firing him wouldn’t just sting; it would scorch the budget. Amid all the short-term reassurance, Norvell might brace for another curveball.

Assistant coach’s potential exit keeps Mike Norvell up late

After leaving UCF Bruins to run the Seminoles’ offense, Gus Malzahn was supposed to supercharge the attack. Instead, Florida State is stuck at No. 39 in scoring. They are averaging 29.8 points, nowhere near the punch they envisioned with Tommy Castellanos. Norvell might be locked in for 2026, but the rest of the staff?

Not so much.

And the name causing the loudest buzz in the rumor mill is Malzahn.

“There’s no guarantee Malzahn’s there next year. I know there are guys on staff who don’t think he’s coming back,” dropped Elliot. 

It appears Malzahn, too, recognizes he does not envision a long-term future with Norvell’s program. When asked Sunday, November 23, if he’d be back at Florida State next season, Malzahn didn’t exactly shoot straight. The former Auburn title-winning OC dodged with a cryptic response. Instead, he said his focus was only on beating Florida this Saturday, November 29.

“Yeah. My intent is to help us get bowl eligible and win this game, and that’s exactly what my focus is,” said Norvell’s assistant coach.

Malzahn’s payday is on a steady climb. $1.5 million in Year 1, jumping to $2 million in Year 2, and topping out at $2.5 million by Year 3. If he leaves, it will be a significant loss for Norvell as well.

“I mean, having the opportunity to have coach Malzahn come and be a part of our staff, it was special, Norvell told the media at the 2025 ACC Media Days.

It’s somebody that I’ve had a 20-year relationship with, all the respect in the world for the man, not just the coach.”

Florida State has shown Mike Norvell grace before. But will he receive a free pass again without a double-digit win season? Or are they just counting down the days until his buyout becomes more wallet-friendly?