Garrett Nussmeier was supposed to be LSU’s next big-armed heir under center. Deemed a future No.1 Draft pick, tabbed by many as the best quarterback in the SEC, and expected to finally help Brian Kelly check off that elusive College Football Playoff box in Baton Rouge. But now, a quiet storm is brewing further east. And it’s not coming from Athens or Tuscaloosa. It’s coming from a two-win Mississippi State program with a Senior QB1 who barely had 10 TDs last year. A three-and-a-half-win total for 2025. And apparently, it has enough juice to push Nussmeier off the SEC’s statistical throne—at least, that’s the bold claim from one plugged-in voice.

In the SEC Podcast, Mike stated, at the importance of availability, “If he stays healthy, I’m going to give it to Blake Shapen, Mississippi State quarterback, for a couple of reasons.” He further added, “The offense is phenomenal. Jeff Lebby is a hell of a quarterback coach. I think they’re going to be high-flying on offense, but we’re also going to be losing a lot, unfortunately. Right. So, we’re going to be playing catch-up, and this team’s going to live by the offense here. And they were highly productive last year.” The caveat was obvious—Shapen has to stay upright. “If Blake Shapen can stay healthy, I think he is your leader in passing yards in the SEC next season.”

The “but” followed immediately, and it landed right back on Garrett Nussmeier’s lap. “But if he’s not, and he’s gotten banged up a lot in his career, give me Garrett Nussmeier. I think Garrett Nussmeier is a close second and may very well lead the SEC in passing yards next season. I think LSU will rely on him early and often, and he may very well go down as the best quarterback in the conference this season.” Mike didn’t stop there. “There’s not a lot of hype for Nuss. There is NFL hype with him, but you don’t see Nussmeier. I’m not saying he’s completely disrespected, but I don’t know that I’ve seen anyone outside of Baton Rouge have him as the number one quarterback in the SEC. He’s got to be in the conversation. He’s highly productive.”

Meanwhile, Shapen has quietly become one of the most compelling boom-or-bust bets in the conference. After transferring from Baylor with coach Jeff Lebby, the QB only saw action in four games last season before injury ended his campaign. But in those games, he was sharp, completing 68.5% of his passes for 974 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just one interception. The system does some of the heavy lifting, sure. Lebby’s offense is designed for efficiency and tempo. Still, it takes a steady hand to execute, and Shapen showed plenty of that when healthy.

Even opposing coaches took notice. “When [Blake] Shapen was healthy last season, the offense wasn’t bad at all,” said one anonymous SEC coach. “He knows how to run that system.” When the Bulldogs had him in the lineup, Mississippi State averaged 30 points and 402 total yards per game. That doesn’t scream ‘basement-dweller,’ even though their overall record suggested otherwise, especially after humbling losses to Toledo and Florida.

The challenge? Keeping the wheels from falling off. Mississippi State lost 37 players to the portal after a disastrous 2-win season. It’s a full-blown rebuild, but the offense is expected to be the lifeline. With eight returning starters on that side of the ball and no clear expectations weighing them down, the Bulldogs are dangerous in a wild-card kind of way. If they can steal one in Week 2 against a Playoff hopeful, the momentum shift could be massive.

Bulldogs eye a new era with FPI boost and Blake Shapen’s return

The 2025 season is starting to shape up as a turning point for Mississippi State. ESPN just dropped its FPI rankings, and the Bulldogs came in at No. 52 nationally—an encouraging jump from last year’s standing. That’s a solid step forward as Jeff Lebby continues to put his fingerprints on the program, installing his high-octane offensive system and going full throttle in the transfer portal.

On the recruiting front, the Dawgs are making moves, too. Their 2025 class ranks 26th nationally, which is up three spots from 2024. That kind of trajectory? Fans in Starkville will take it. But the biggest headline might just be at quarterback.

“Blake’s decision to return for the 2025 season after his season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4 last year provides crucial stability,” said former MSU quarterback Jackie Sherrill. “His experience in Lebby’s system will be invaluable.” That’s not just praise—that’s a promise of calm amid the chaos of the SEC.

And speaking of chaos, Mississippi State’s schedule is no joke. The Bulldogs are staring down the barrel of matchups with FPI juggernauts Tennessee, Texas, and Georgia. But hey, no guts, no glory.