Texas State’s Move to Pac-12 Sees Major 8-Figure Twist

Time is ticking for the Pac-12, and now every move counts. After facing tons of instability, now the Pac-12’s continued status as an FBS conference hinges on having at least eight football schools by 2026. Currently at seven, Texas State’s application isn’t just about expansion; it’s about survival. Now, they do have teams like Gonzaga, but let’s be real: they lack a football team. Now, adding Texas State is crucial, and the league needs to act fast.

So, they’ve been the conference’s top target for months. On top of that, a virtual meeting was held earlier this week around Texas State; that’s a clear sign that wheels are turning behind the scenes. Now, 356 Sports Jon Wilner chimes in to explain the Pac-12’s urgency to bring in another team into their conference. Now, Wilner breaks their intentions into two parts and explains, “One is they need a media rights deal to start next July, and I think that they are probably days away from announcing that.”

Then comes the important segment. “Separately, they still need an eighth football-playing school, and Texas State is absolutely, I think, at the top of their list or very close to the top of their list. My guess is that those two things—the media deal and the expansion move—will come separately, but there’s a chance they’ll try to do it all at once,” Wilner added. To maintain its football viability, the Pac-12 must act before July 1st—or risk paying more and losing momentum.

But what makes Texas State their top priority? They boast over 40,000 students, access to rich Texas recruiting, and an up-and-coming coach, G.J. Kinne, who led them to an 8-5 season. They even rejected the Mountain West last year after just some “preliminary talks.” Adding Texas State is a bold move. The Pac-12 is pushing hard to expand, but it keeps hitting roadblocks. It went after AAC schools like Tulane and Memphis, but those plans fell apart when the Pac-12 offered only $2.5 million toward the hefty $25 million exit fee—an offer the AAC schools flatly turned down.

With those doors closed, Texas State has quickly become the top target. However, if the Pac-12 fails to meet just one key condition, it might lose Texas State forever.

“I suppose if they don’t think the money’s right. One piece we don’t know is whether they would come in as a full-share member or at a partial share or at no shares—do the SMU route. My guess is that they would get at least partial share status, especially in the beginning years, and then have it ladder up to full share status at the end of the contract term,” Wilner highlighted. That makes perfect sense, and even Texas State’s President Kelly Damphousse has not-so-subtly signaled his expectations about sharing a fair financial benefit.

Back in April, he shared a tweet about lobster bisque and said, “People sometimes think that I’d be happy with half a bowl of soup. After all, a cup of soup is better than no soup at all. But for me, it’s a full bowl or nothing.” The point wasn’t the food; it represented media rights. Damphousse wants complete membership benefits, not partial payments. This expectation is consistent with Gonzaga’s precedent as a full media rights member, even without a football team. Damphousse, clearly, won’t settle for scraps, unlike SMU.

Texas State has always aimed high in college sports, aggressively pursuing advancement—from its 1984 move to Division I to its 2012 jump to the FBS. Despite the Sun Belt’s strong reputation, Texas State consistently seeks greater challenges. Currently, its media rights deal generates around $2 million annually, but a Pac-12 move could boost that to over $6 million. So what exactly can they expect from the Pac-12’s TV deal?

Pac-12’s major 8-figure TV deal

The Pac-12 is nearing a crucial step in its revitalization: a new media rights deal. Sources indicate an imminent announcement. Facing membership changes and five new additions next year, the conference isn’t just seeking revenue; it’s racing against the clock. This deal will shape the Pac-12’s future and restore its national prominence.

A five-year deal is preferred, prioritizing adaptability. With the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC facing their negotiations later this decade, Pac-12 members want flexibility to adapt to market changes. A shorter contract, or one with a five-year opt-out, protects them from future landscape shifts. But despite the shift, the new Pac-12 media deal won’t be huge—it’s expected to bring in only about a third of what the Big 12 makes. As Jon Wilner highlights, “I mean, it’s not going to be much. It’s going to be somewhere around a third of the Big 12 deal. You know, if they can get 10 million per school, I think they’d be very happy. They may end up in the 8–9 range.”

But let’s not forget it depends on the share status too. “If Texas State comes in at a half share, that’s a little bit more for everybody else. I think they’re also going to implement some kind of performance-based revenue model, like the ACC’s doing. So the high—the top schools in a given year—could earn maybe 10–11 million in conference revenue,” Wilner added. For now, the conference deal projects annual revenue of roughly $70 million. This translates to $7.8 million to $10 million per full-share school yearly, over three times Texas State’s current revenue.

Joining the Pac-12 would significantly increase Texas State’s income and visibility. The new agreement should put more games on major networks, rather than ESPN+, reaching more fans and prospective students. Even starting with a partial share, the long-term benefits could be transformative for Texas State. Even Wilner said the same, “But it’s on the margins compared to the Power Four. The biggest thing for them in this deal is going to be exposure. They have got to have a package of games on broadcast television so that their product can be seen coast to coast.”

Facing declining traditional media revenue compared to other Power Five conferences, the Pac-12 is prioritizing increased visibility. This involves balancing linear TV with streaming options to maximize exposure for its teams. Adapting to the changing media landscape, the Pac-12 aims to remain competitive and relevant. Now, all eyes turn to how the conference reshapes its future.