Winning the Daytona 500 is a ticket to sealing a driver’s legacy in NASCAR history. Over the years, we have seen drivers like Richard Petty dominate the event with seven wins and Denny Hamlin with three. However, the last 3 editions saw Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr in the victory lane. With this year’s race merely hours away, who will it be this time? With plenty of crashes along with disruptions due to weather, the season has already seen a ton of action, promising a lot more to come.

In recent years, the World Center of Racing has been a fairly dangerous venue for every driver. Unfortunate crashes, multi-car wrecks, and temper tantrums have been a common occurrence on this track. This has supplied the fans with a fair battleground annually and continues to do so. Could 2024 produce another surprise winner of the Great American Race? Let us look at some of the drivers who could spring a surprise on Sunday, albeit at the wishes of the weather gods.

1. Noah Gragson

The Stewart-Haas Racing No.10 driver is one of the many drivers hoping to prove a point this year. Having returned from a hiatus after a brief stint with Legacy Motor Club, there isn’t a better platform to announce his intentions than the Daytona 500. Noah Gragson had a solid outing in the second Bluegreen Vacations Duel and even fought for the lead after the first wave of green flag stops. While an unfortunate multi-car wreck ruined his evening, it was an encouraging display from the 25-year-old.

Looking at his recent statistics at the Daytona International Speedway, the sample space is quite small. Having started in 3 races at the venue, he has an average finish of 20.0, which doesn’t sound great. However, the lowest finish of P31 eclipses his best finish of 5th. Considering that the former JR Motorsports driver has had limited starts at the track, he has performed well.

This is also Noah Gragson’s first time racing with a Cup Series powerhouse with world-class equipment at his disposal. Combining the No.10 driver and SHR’s hunger for success could be the ingredients for the next Daytona 500 underdog victory.

2.  Erik Jones

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Erik Jones has always possessed the caliber to win races. Coming from a lackluster 2023 season that saw Legacy Motor Club struggle with quality support from manufacturers Chevrolet, the infusion of Toyota brings a lot of hope.

The Daytona International Speedway also holds some special memories for the 27-year-old. A 2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 win is one of his most memorable wins where he won by leading only the final lap of the race.

The No.43 Toyota driver has started in 14 races at the DIS and has an average finishing position of 22.5. Jones also has two top-5s and three top-10s to his name, which showcases his ability to churn stage points. Coming into the 2024 Daytona 500 with a strong finish in the first Duel, he will start 11th on Sunday. Should he manage to avoid the chaotic proceedings of Daytona, he has a solid chance of winning it.

Jones will also hope to recreate LMC team owner Jimmie Johnson‘s heroics at the track. With Jimmie donning the #84 Camry on Sunday, Erik Jones has the chance to produce something special.

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3.  Justin Haley

Justin Haley’s arrival at Rick Ware Racing is a hopeful start to the alliance with RFK Racing. Following excellent road course exposure at Kaulig Racing, the 24-year-old driver will steer the No.51 Ford this year. The technical alliance with Brad Keselowski‘s team provides a boost in the superspeedway department. With a laidback starting position on Sunday, Haley could use his fuel-efficient approach to capitalize on green flag pit stops and gain positions.

Justin Haley has made 7 appearances at Daytona and has a win with a top-5, two top-10s, and 3 top-20 finishes. With an average finishing position of 17.7, which is better than veterans of the sport like Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott, Haley is another underdog that could surprise the NASCAR community.

A change of manufacturers to Ford after being a Chevrolet driver is also a major addition to his arsenal. Ford has dominated the qualifying sessions with two Ford drivers occupying the front row. Should a window of hope open up on the unpredictable roads of Daytona, the No.51 team will be waiting to capitalize on it and begin a new era in style.

4. Zane Smith

The 2022 Truck Series champion is one of the most refined talents in the Cup Series. Having grown from strength to strength, the No. 71 Chevrolet driver is coming on the back of a single Daytona start. The 24-year-old bossed the #36 Front Row Motorsports car last year at last year’s Daytona 500 and justified the hype around his abilities with a P13 finish.

While some might suggest that Smith’s top-20 finish was a result of multiple crashes and caution flags, he started the race in 17th and raced clean and avoided wrecks through timely pit stops to move higher up the grid. Zane Smith has also joined the 2024 season as a rookie with Spire Motorsports. Having arrived at the team as a part of Trackhouse Racing‘s alliance, the No.71 team’s superspeedway prowess could be on display on Sunday.

5. Chris Buescher

The No.17 Ford driver seemed like a juggernaut in 2023. While many people might resort to the usual suspect at Daytona, Denny Hamlin, Buescher is the defending champion at Daytona. Ending the 2023 regular season with a bang at the Coke Zero Sugar 400, the 31-year-old stormed to a dominant victory. With Ford adding more muscle to its Dark Horse Mustang, Chris Buescher is a strong contender for the Great American Race.

Buescher has raced in 16 events at the DIS and claimed his maiden win on it last year. However, a single win shouldn’t divert one’s attention from the five top-5s and seven top-10s to back his claim. One aspect for him to worry about is finishing the race. The final stage execution has been worrisome for the No.17 team. Owing to the same despite an average starting position of 18.4, his finishing position has worsened to 19.9.

But it is also possible that Buescher and Keselowski have found a formula to find winning speed on superspeedways. Starting distant from the front row, it will take a massive effort from the Ford duo to land a successive Daytona victory.

6. Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace isn’t a favorite for the 2024 Daytona 500 when considering a general consensus. The 23XI Racing driver can also be regarded to be one of the unluckiest Cup Series drivers at Daytona in recent history. In 13 races at Daytona, Bubba has recorded no wins. However, he boasts the best average finishing position among current drivers with 12.9.

Bubba Wallace has finished outside the top 20 in only one outing at Daytona and has finished second on two occasions. His average starting position of 17.3 suggests that later stages of races have been favorable for the 30-year-old. Having made his debut playoff appearance in 2023 and even qualified for the Round of 12, Bubba’s confidence will be at an all-time high.

However, he also understands this this is not the time to dwell on past glory and take inspiration from teammate and Duel 1 winner Tyler Reddick to move ahead in the grid.

7. Corey LaJoie

The No.7 Chevrolet driver is one of the most underrated drivers in the sport. In 2023, Corey LaJoie was the only Cup Series driver to finish all of his races in the season and recorded career-best numbers. Spire Motorsports’ intention to expand its presence has coincided with LaJoie’s success. Owing to the same, the team has also received technical support from Chevy ally Trackhouse Racing.

Statistically, LaJoie has a better average finish than many former champions at Daytona. In 14 starts, the 32-year-old has an average finishing position of 18.1 with four top-10s and 9 top-20s. One of the more notable statistics from his repertoire is the mid-race improvement. LaJoie’s average starting position at Daytona is 25.5 which means he rises by 11 places in the grid on an average in Daytona.

Apart from statistics, LaJoie’s ruggedness to finish a race is his biggest weapon at Daytona. Since DNFs are a common incidence at the venue, being the hardest man to eliminate works in his favor definitely.

Considering the long list of drivers who are yet to win the Daytona 500, some may think it tough to rank these drivers ahead of former champions like Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr, or Chase Elliott. However, unpredictability is the Daytona International Speedway’s most notable trait. As the results of the past three years suggest, the Great American Race is the underdog’s rise to NASCAR history.

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